Economy Will Remain Stagnant

The nation’s economy    may    witness no major economic transformation between  now and the  year   2015(Millenuim   Development  Goals    2015), as major   indices   have   shown that the economy   will grow at a much slower pace,   except   urgent    steps    are taken   to  redress   the  ugly  trend.

According to an economist, Professor Akpan   Ekpo,  who       spoke   in   Lagos,    Nigeria    has   attained   50  years  of  Independence,   yet  there  has  been  no  major  improvement   in   her   socio-economic   indices..
Ekpo, who was delivering a keynote lecture at the Wilson Badejo Foundation (WBF), Fifth Annual Lecture, with the theme: ‘Nigeria’s Great Resources and the Paradox of Economic Poverty,’ in Lagos, said, “Despite the various efforts put in place by   many   stakeholders    to check   the rising rate of poverty, the rate of unemployment is growing faster than the growth of the economy, especially as the growth witnessed over the years has not contributed to curbing the unemployment situation    and   this   is   so,  because   Government   has  merely   been  paying  lip  service  to  solving   the   unemployment   problems   in   the   country  .”

Continuing, he stated, “According to government statistics, in the last five years, the economy has experienced an average growth rate of seven per cent.  In the first quarter of 2011, the economy grew by  only   6.8 per cent. However, the growth is non-employment    generating.  It is a jobless growth.”

“Furthermore, if the base year for computing GDP is changed as being proposed, then it would be more of a paper growth rate.

“The current annual rate of inflation is 12.5 per cent; it is double   digit   and   High rate of inflation hurts the poor more     ,since  the rich can draw on savings to purchase needed goods and services.

“The official rate of unemployment is 23.9 per cent as at November, 2011.  This represents an increase when compared to about 21 per cent in 2010.  It is even higher among youths and other vulnerable groups.

“Also, disturbing is that rural unemployment is increasing.  The high rates of unemployment increase the number of poor people. It is interesting to note that the rate of unemployment is increasing faster than the growth of the economy – another disturbing trend.  The question to address therefore is: where is the   so   called   average   growth    ,  analysts    say   even   coming    from?  I   would   rather   believe  Nigeria   as   a   nation   is   not  even   growing   at    all ”

Akpan argued that the manufacturing sub-sector contributes about 3.5 per cent to GDP in the last six years, adding that the 2011–2015 Medium–term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and the Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP)   is   making   no   progress    and    thus    the manufacturing sector’s contribution to GDP would remain at four per cent signalling no meaningful change in the structure of the economy.

Stressing further, he said, “Today our economy is dependent on oil with economic growth recording only seven per cent. And poverty index is about 70 percent. Furthermore, human inequality is high.

Several governments in Nigeria have always claimed to fight poverty. Several programmes costing
billions of naira have been designed and sometimes implemented partially to tackle poverty.

“At the end, these poverty programmes only make the poor poorer, and the rich have become richer by looting or stealing the money meant to tackle poverty.  In addition, there are huge NGOs with interest in  poverty alleviation. Not withstanding all these, no positive results”


 “Lending rates are high averaging about 22 per cent, thus, inhibiting the growth of the real sector. All these show that the economy is in a state of stagnation. If the situation is not reverse, then the state of poverty will persist increasingly,” he lamented.

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